His book is hard reading and people are either going to like this book or. Mar 28, 2018 the black swan asymmetry allows you to be confident about what is wrong, not about what you believe is right. Apr 22, 2007 the hubris of predictions and our perpetual surprise when the notpredicted happens are themes of nassim nicholas talebs engaging new book, the black swan. May 30, 2017 this article explains the background behind the black swan portfolio and how ive designed it in practice. Fooled by randomness and the black swan are the first two parts of a trilogy that the author calls incerto. Nassim taleb author of the renowned black swan book said people are sick of being told how to think by hapless eurocrats who couldnt find a coconut on coconut island. Apr 24, 2012 the main theme of the book is that we know much less about finance than we believe we do and especially experts are prone to overestimate their forecasting abilities. This is called the problem of induction, and its the primary topic of this highly entertaining book by nassim nicholas taleb. Taleb, of course, refers to numerous historical examples of things that have come completely out of the blue. Nassim nicholas taleb s treasure chest of a book and new york times bestseller, the black swan, explores the nature of unpredictable events of huge consequence. Support the channel by getting the black swan by nassim taleb here. Things that gain from disorder, offers 61 reading recommendations in his own words.
The other books in the series are fooled by randomness, antifragile, and the bed of procrustes. The black swan by nassim nicholas taleb ft business book. Rooted in the tradition of deep value investing, it is heavily influenced by great. Praise for nassim nicholas taleb the most prophetic voice of all. Nassim nicholas taleb is irritated, he told bloomberg television on march 31st, whenever the coronavirus pandemic is referred to as a black swan, the term he coined for an.
Its a fantastic book for helping you get to know each other better and prevent you from falling into rational pitfalls in which we find ourselves trying to. Aug 09, 2012 nassim taleb is a profound thinker and quite mysterious character, and to say his website still looks like it is stuck in the 90s is probably a compliment. Its a fantastic book for helping you get to know each other better and prevent you from falling into rational pitfalls in which we find ourselves. This is an interesting read which is very abstract in nature. The black swan 363 merely throwing together random materials only to be shocked that the resul t could, for instance, be used to get around town more rapidly. Taleb s favorite topic is the black swan event which is something that the normal distribution, and the idea of standard deviation, dont model that well. Reviews of talebs black swan mactutor history of mathematics. Where exactly in the black swan did nnt predict the 2008 crisis. This book is about the absolutely unexpected, the black swan you would never suspect if you only saw white swans all your life. What is the difference between the book fooled by randomness.
The pandemic isnt a black swan but a portent of a more. I warned in the black swan against some classes of. The comfortable but potentially devastating lies we are told by others, and ourselves. The other books in the series are fooled by randomness, antifragile, skin in the game. In a normal distribution very extreme events should only happen once in the lifetime of several universes. The writer umberto eco belongs to that small class of scholars who are encyclopedic, insightful, and nondull. Once upon a time there was a clever young financial professional called nassim nicholas taleb. Capitalism is, among other things, the revitalization of the world thanks to the opportunity to be lucky. Sitg as you can see on that website, the content of the new. A central idea in talebs book is not to attempt to predict black swan events, but to build. The black swan was written by nassim nicholas taleb arguably one of the greatest philosophers of this era. The impact of the highly improbable is a book that focuses on what has now come to be known as the black swan theory. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal ch.
Through a number of examples, the author aims to show his readers how rare and unpredictable events have a deep and lasting impact on a persons life. To take a very small instance, taleb bases a short section of the book upon the idea. Comments on nassim talebs the long peace is a statistical illusion steven pinker. The black swan is a standalone book in nassim nicholas talebs landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a world we dont understand. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. His 2007 book the black swan has been described by the sunday times as one of the twelve most influential. Talebs favorite topic is the black swan event which is something that the normal distribution, and the idea of standard deviation, dont model that well. For example, taleb believes attempting to turn a social science into an exact science most mba programs is an intellectual fraud. In his 2001 book fooled by randomness, which became a surprise hit in the. May 11, 2010 praise for nassim nicholas taleb the most prophetic voice of all.
The black swan is a standalone book in nassim nicholas talebs landmark incerto series. The black swan is a standalone book in nassim nicholas talebs landmark incerto. Chris anderson, editor in chief of wired, author of the long tail. In this book, taleb presents the phenomenon he calls a. The black swan pdf summary nassim nicholas taleb 12min. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal. Taleb has made his living and a small fortune, now transformed into a large fortune by the 2008 market in an unusual way by financial speculation in contexts where he. What that really means is an indepth examination of where in our world we apply false, naive models typically gaussian, or bellcurve type models, and the impact they can have.
Taleb called friedmans book the world is flat very bad for society. In the end, this great book is a call to rigorous selfthinking, living life on your own terms and intellectual honesty. The black swan covers a broad range of topics and is organized in a somewhat unbalanced way. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three. Engaging and enlightening, the black swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that chris anderson calls, a delightful romp through. Apr 17, 2007 the black swan is a standalone book in nassim nicholas talebs landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a world we dont understand. Technical and academic papers and derivations nassim nicholas taleb nyupoly 2012. His 2007 book the black swan has been described by the sunday times as one of the twelve most influential books since world war ii. Nassim taleb s observation, in his book the black swan, is that, after the fact, we concoct a narrative to explain it. Taleb is the author of the incerto, a five volume philosophical essay on uncertainty published between 2001 and 2018 of which the most known books are the black swan and antifragile. The black swan book summary by nassim nicholas taleb. The impact of the highly improbable by taleb, nassim nicholas 1st first edition hardcover2007.
In the black swan, taleb shares contrarian wisdom that. A black swan is a surprising or virtually unpredictable event that can have a massive impact. The devil in the white city by erik larson freakonomics by steven d. Talebs book is a claim against the rationalisation and misuse of mathematics in economics and finance called scientism by hayek. Companion volume to antifragility forth and the black swan 20072010,2nd ed. Obsessive love is the most antifragile thing outside of economics.
He is the owner of a large personal library containing thirty thousand books, and separates visitors into two categories. It was about the fact that we cannot identify skills because of sampling error. Nassim taleb is a profound thinker and quite mysterious character, and to say his website still looks like it is stuck in the 90s is probably a compliment. Nassim nicholas taleb, the black swan actuaryabroad. His writing is lively and memorable, and his examples are apposite, so that it. I want to be broadly right rather than precisely wrong. The book asserts that a black swan event depends on the observer. He provides a fresh nonanglo view on finance, which has been dominated by the chicago school of economics after the second world war. Nassim taleb is a literary essayist, hedge fund manager, derivatives trader and. The impact of the highly improbable, has bracing things to say about the future. The book is full of hundreds of great examples, and it is written in a very.
The third part of the trilogy to be published is called antifragile and is, in talebs own words the main volume. Chris anderson, editor in chief of wired, author of the long tail idiosyncratically brilliant. The other books in the series are fooled by randomness, antifragile, skin in the game, and the bed of procrustes. Talebs thesis is that not only are black swans new information or events entirely outside our expectations or predictions more common than we think they are, theyre far more influential as well. Taleb has made his living and a small fortune, now transformed into a large fortune by the 2008 market in an unusual way by financial speculation in contexts where he spots a small chance of making a very large gain. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. The black swan pdf summary nassim nicholas taleb nugget. Nassim talebs black swan explained in this video youll learn about black swan theory, which the famous author and quant trader nassim taleb made popular. It is inevitable that we will be massively blindsided by events, because our understanding is misled by an array of beguiling illusions about reality. I was surprised to learn that nassim taleb had a problem with my book the better angels of our nature, because its analysis of war and terrorism harmonizes with talebs signature themes.
Nassim nicholas taleb explores in the black swan the problems of perception caused in people by random, unexpected events such as 911, which have an enormous impact on humanity and which people try to explain to no avail. Where exactly in the black swan did nnt predict the 2008. The book has made me think in a very abstract way in looking at past events that happened and trying to work out if we could have known that this was to happen. The impact of the highly improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader nassim nicholas taleb. Mild randomness, my chapter with benoit mandelbrot in your book, is what happens. In my own list of 100 instances of chance in the real world, exactly 1 item is. The hubris of predictions and our perpetual surprise when the notpredicted happens are themes of nassim nicholas talebs engaging new book, the black swan. Black swans are highly consequential but unlikely events that are easily. As nassim nicholas taleb reveals, we are hardwired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible. The other books in the series are fooled by randomness, antifragile, skin in the. Nassim nicholas talebs wikipedia page skeptical empiricist nassim taleb, author of the black swan.
In the black swan, taleb proclaims that the unexpected is the key to. Nassim nicholas taleb first made this argument in fooled by randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for selfdeception when it comes to statistics. The black swan is a standalone book in nassim nicholas taleb s landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a world we dont understand. The author of the black swan, a book about risk and probability. Bestselling author nassim nicholas taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, the black swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. May 02, 2018 nassim talebs black swan explained in this video youll learn about black swan theory, which the famous author and quant trader nassim taleb made popular. Explains how we missed the word antifragility in classrooms. Mere months later, the world economy would be in a tailspinand nassim nicholas taleb, who in the black swan warned that the global financial system was vulnerable to collapse, would be treated as a seer. Nassim talebs observation, in his book the black swan, is that, after the fact, we concoct a narrative to explain it.
Nassim taleb, the polarizing author of bestselling books the black swan and antifragile. The author famous for the black swan is a bit of a black swan himself an unexpected phenomenon arising from the collision of. The impact of the highly improbable by taleb, nassim nicholas 1st first edition hardcover2007 on. Essentially, the book is all about how to convert knowledge into action and figure out what knowledge is worth. I was surprised to learn that nassim taleb had a problem with my book the better angels of our nature. This article explains the background behind the black swan portfolio and how ive designed it in practice. Why black swans matter according to taleb black swans have 3 characteristics.
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